Penn State has been stuck in a brutal four-game slide, but if you’ve been watching how Purdue’s defense has played, you know this week is where the tide could finally turn. The market has completely abandoned Penn State, laying barely more than a touchdown against a Purdue squad that’s packing one of the Big Ten’s worst defenses. This is where a bad story can get rewritten.
Penn State’s Near Misses and Purdue’s Woes
Let’s be real, it has not been smooth sailing for Matt Campbell’s Penn State team. They are 3-4 overall, a rough 0-4 in the Big Ten. Quarterback Rocco Becht has struggled since conference play kicked off, throwing five interceptions against just three touchdown passes. Campbell himself had to defend Becht in his bye-week press conference, saying they have “complete faith in Rocco” but admitting their “margin for error is really thin.” He is not wrong. Three of those four losses came down to the final four minutes, man. They choked a 17-0 lead to Wisconsin with a 72-yard touchdown with just 1:13 left. They lost by eight to USC after a fumble with four minutes to go in front of the biggest crowd Beaver Stadium has ever seen. And at Michigan, they outgained the Wolverines and still clawed back to within three in the fourth quarter. It is a tough run, but the underlying data says their defense is actually solid.
Now, flip that coin to Purdue. Their defense has been an absolute eyesore, game after game after game. The latest example? A 38-26 home loss to Washington, where Huskies QB Elijah Brown threw three interceptions in his first start, and STILL managed to rack up 302 yards and three touchdowns. Huskies coach Jedd Fisch summed it up perfectly after that win: “You are not usually minus-4 in the turnover battle and win the game.” The market has lost all faith in Penn State after their rough patch, but you have to wonder if they are selling a bit too low on a team that had all the preseason hype in the world when Purdue’s defense is giving up those kinds of numbers.
North Texas’s Offensive Firepower Versus Their Own Defense
Thursday night in Denton is gonna be wild, because North Texas (5-2) has absolutely earned some respect. Head coach Neal Brown is in his first season and these guys have won four straight, scoring a ridiculous 43.1 points per game, which is second in the entire FBS. Quarterback Tayven Jackson threw for 305 yards and three touchdowns in their 49-39 win at Navy on Saturday, and Justin Stevenson snagged eight balls for 209 yards. This offense can fly.
But here is the kicker: Florida Atlantic’s defense is exactly as bad as you have heard. The Owls (5-2) just gave up 608 yards to a 1-7 Rice team that was starting its backup quarterback, with Gael Ochoa running for 259 yards and four touchdowns! That is a straight up nightmare. The problem for North Texas? Their own defense is not much better. They rank No. 122, and Navy outgained them 506-477 last Saturday. Fourteen of North Texas’ 49 points in that game came on a punt return and a fumble return, not their D getting stops. And when they have faced real teams away from home, their record looks way different. They lost by 36 at Indiana and by 14 at Texas State, and needed a one-point win at Tulsa. Florida Atlantic can absolutely keep pace in a shootout.
Illinois’ Injury Woes
Away from those two potential barnburners, Illinois just lost its starting quarterback to a broken hand. That is a brutal blow, and it means the total for their game at Maryland is sitting in the low 50s. On top of that, Maryland’s defense has not stopped anybody in a month. Expect some chaos to continue in college football this week.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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