Forget what you thought you knew about NFL prime time games, because favorites have flat out LOST 10 games outright while going a brutal 4-12 against the spread! We’re only five weeks into the 2026 season and the league is already throwing curveballs, especially when the bright lights are on. It’s a wild ride out there, and some of these early trends are screaming about what to watch for in Week 6.
Underdogs Are Cleaning Up, But There’s a Catch
While it feels like favorites are dominating the scoreboard, winning a solid 71% of games (49-29-1 straight up out of 69 matchups), it’s the underdogs who are making folks happy at the betting window. They’ve gone 42-34-3 against the spread overall, and get this: a crazy 27-17-3 ATS since Week 3! But don’t just blindly back every underdog. Sizable favorites, those laying six points or more, might be 18-7 straight up, but they’re absolutely killing parlays, going just 7-15-3 ATS. That’s a huge difference.
And when it comes to the totals, there are some clear patterns. If the closing total is 40 points or less, the under has hit in six of eight games. But if you see a total north of 50 points, the over is crushing it, going 8-2. This week’s NFL odds board has five games with totals above 50, so keep that in your back pocket.
Jags Heating Up in London, Texans Punching Back
We’ve got an AFC South showdown across the pond this week with the Texans facing the Jaguars in London. The Jags are rolling into this one after a truly improbable 19-17 victory over the Eagles last week, capped by a 57-yard field goal as time expired. They didn’t cover as 7.5-point favorites, which is a bit of a head-scratcher, but this team has been on an absolute tear since Week 11 of the 2025 season, going 12-1 straight up and 11-3 ATS! Their defense is legitimately scary, yielding just 14.3 points per game and holding 12 opponents (including the last 11 in a row!) to fewer than 21 points. Talk about lockdown.
On the other side, the Texans finally got a positive result, crushing the Titans 26-3 in Week 5 as a 6.5-point road favorite after starting 0-4 straight up and ATS. Don’t sleep on them as underdogs, though. They’re 4-1 SU/ATS in that role since Week 12 last season. This rivalry usually brings the heat, too. Houston has won 13 of 16 battles since 2018, but Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in the last seven. The favorite has taken 6 of the last 7 straight up, but the underdog has covered 9 of the last 14. And if you like close games, the last five meetings have all been decided by a single score. For totals, the under is 6-2 in the last eight clashes, but five of the last six have cleared 42 combined points. Confusing, right?
Ravens Road Warrior Vibe, Browns D Still Scary
Then we’ve got a classic AFC North slugfest: the Ravens at the Browns. Baltimore managed to pull off a 30-23 overtime victory against Atlanta last week as a three-point underdog, even with Lamar Jackson sidelined with an ankle injury. That win snapped an 0-3 ATS slide they had going as favorites. But here’s a trend to watch: favorites of four points or more this season are 25-11 straight up, but only a measly 13-20-3 ATS. The Ravens are laying 5.5 points this week.
Cleveland’s surprising 3-0 SU/ATS run got halted with a 17-12 loss to the Jets, but their defense continues to be a brick wall. Since getting torched in their season opener against Jacksonville (34-10 loss), the Browns are giving up a stingy 19.5 points per game. Keep an eye on the Ravens’ ATS struggles, too: they’re just 9-13 ATS overall since the 2025 season started, and have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games as a favorite.
So, with all these wild trends swirling, Week 6 is shaping up to be a total rollercoaster. Keep an eye on those prime time favorites, because the numbers are screaming. The Texans and Jags battling it out in London, plus the Ravens trying to cover on the road against a tough Browns D? You gotta love this league. Get ready for some wild finishes, folks!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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