Red Sox Were Supposed to Have ZERO 20-Homer Guys, But Now They’ve Got Three: Why Those Projections Missed So Bad

Willson Contreras is absolutely crushing it for the Boston Red Sox with 26 homers on the season, completely blowing past preseason projections that said no Red Sox player would even hit 20 round-trippers. Seriously, remember the noise leading up to Opening Day? The talk was all about a power vacuum in Boston, but this team just laughed in the face of those predictions.

The Preseason Narrative Blew Up

FanGraphs’ ZiPS model was loud and clear back in the spring, projecting Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu to lead the team with a measly 19 dingers each. Even if you tried to be charitable and factored in mid-season addition Adley Rutschman, his projections only landed him at 18. There were Reddit threads, articles questioning the power output,the whole nine yards. It felt like everyone was convinced Boston was going to be a singles and doubles club.

A Trio of 20-Homer Club Members

Fast forward to early September, and that narrative is officially toast. Contreras leads the charge with an incredible 26 homers, way up from his projected 17. Abreu isn’t far behind with 23. And Duran? He just smacked his 20th bomb on Labor Day! Even the currently-injured Ceddanne Rafaela has an outside shot at hitting four more to join the 20-homer club. This Red Sox squad is clearly proving that preseason numbers don’t tell the whole story.

Projections Are Just a Baseline

This whole situation just highlights how much you can only take projections at face value. Baseball models are inherently conservative, right? ZiPS only expected eight players across MLB to hit 35 homers this year, but we’ve already seen eight guys reach that mark by Labor Day. It’s just easier to project a modest 25 homers than a monster 40. Plus, let’s be real, how could a team playing over half their games in hitter-friendly Fenway Park , with its Green Monster and short Pesky’s Pole , not have at least one guy hit 20? It was always a matter of who, not if.

The Red Sox are showing that sometimes, you just gotta play the game and let the bats do the talking. Keep an eye on Contreras and that crew, because they’re definitely not done making noise before Game 162.

This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.

Originally reported by Over the Monster.