Rick Tocchet just pulled off a playoff berth in his first season behind the bench, a feat that ended a five-year drought. Now, with a full year in his system and another offseason to fully stamp his vision, the biggest question on everyone’s mind is what year two under Tocchet truly looks like. Does his system consistently deliver more once it’s fully baked in? Turns out, history is pretty clear on this one.
Second Season, Seriously Better Records
When you look at team records, Tocchet’s second seasons are generally a big positive. In two out of his three previous stops, his teams saw a solid bump, a jump of about 10 percentage points in their points percentage from year one to year two. We’re talking about Arizona and Tampa Bay here. They didn’t make the playoffs those years, but the improvement was undeniable, like a noticeable shift in gears.
Vancouver, though, is the real eye-opener. Their improvement was a bit smaller, around five percentage points, but it was arguably even more impressive given where they started. After Tocchet took over mid-season in 2022-23, the Canucks went 20-12-4, finishing with a 61.1 points percentage in what we’re calling his “first year” there. Fast forward to year two, and boom! They pushed that mark to an incredible 66.5 percent. What did that mean? They won the Pacific Division and locked in the sixth-best record in the entire NHL. But here’s the thing: records are only part of the story, right? A jump in wins can be awesome, but you gotta dig deeper to see if the actual play is better.
Underlying Numbers Show the Real Grind
And when you dig into the underlying numbers at five-on-five, Tocchet’s more recent teams show some serious improvements in year two. Tampa Bay stayed pretty consistent, but both Arizona and Vancouver cranked up their offense. They got better across the board in their shot rates, from attempts to shots on goal and even expected goals. That’s not just luck; that’s putting pressure on defenses.
Defensively, these clubs also tightened things up big time, cutting down on the quality of shots against them. Arizona rocketed from 23rd to 14th in expected goals against per 60, which is a massive leap. Vancouver jumped from ninth to sixth, becoming one of the league’s absolute best shot suppression teams. Now, sometimes the results don’t perfectly match the process, like with the Coyotes. They improved in almost every offensive metric but actually scored fewer goals per 60 in year two, which probably points to some rough finishing luck with their shooting percentage. But even with that, the process was clearly better.
So, what does Tocchet’s track record tell us about a team heading into its second season with him at the helm? History shows a serious improvement isn’t just possible, it’s the standard. With underlying numbers generally getting sharper and teams often making a big jump in the standings, the expectation for growth is real. Everyone will be watching to see if that trend holds true, and if a year two under Tocchet means they’re not just better, but truly ready to make some serious noise.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Broad Street Hockey.
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