Our Seattle Seahawks are tied for the league lead in interceptions coming out of week five, and on the surface, that sounds awesome, right? But what if that stat, for us and for the Green Bay Packers who are also tied for the lead, is actually a giant mirage? The Packers’ defense has been a “pleasant surprise” with their picks, but when you dig into the numbers, those turnovers are looking super noisy and, frankly, a little suspicious.
Those Interceptions? They’re Against Who Now?
Yeah, the Packers are looking good on paper, ranking eighth in EPA allowed per dropback and an outstanding third in ANY/A value. But here’s the kicker: they’re tied with our Hawks for the league lead in interceptions, and guess what? Turnovers are notoriously noisy. A lot of it comes down to who you’ve played. For Green Bay, it’s a huge story. In week one, they mostly faced Carson Wentz, the Vikings’ backup. Weeks two and three brought Geno Smith and Michael Penix Jr., both starters, but then came an undrafted rookie backup in week four, and then both a second and third string quarterback in week five. So, while those early numbers scream “elite,” the grain of salt you need to take with them is more like a whole boulder. We’ve seen similar patterns before; you have to wonder if our own pick numbers would hold up against a gauntlet of top-tier QBs.
Cracks Are Already Showing, Big Time
The illusion starts to fade when you look at success rate. While Green Bay is eighth in EPA allowed per dropback, they’re sitting at a much less impressive 17th in success rate allowed through the air. And remember, that’s still against a parade of backups and a Jets passing game that’s down at 20th in EPA-per-dropback and 19th in dropback success rate. DVOA, which cuts through the “backup QB” excuse and just looks at season-long unit performance, says the Packers defense has played the fifth easiest schedule in the entire NFL so far. The gap between them and the top three defenses is small, but so is the gap between them and eighth place. A lot of that difference could be made up when you realize they faced full games of Jalon Daniels, Tyson Bagent, and Case Keenum instead of guys like Baker Mayfield and Caleb Williams. Plus, whatever perceived differences you have between Carson Wentz and Kyler Murray, the schedule has been soft. It makes you wonder how well any defense, ours included, would stack up if they had that easy of a road.
Dallas Is Bringing The Pain, For Real
This week, Green Bay won’t have that kind of luck. While the Cowboys’ defense might be a travesty, their offense can absolutely hum. Their passing game is fifth in passing DVOA and fourth in EPA-per-dropback. Their two wide receivers are going to be a huge problem for the Packers. George Pickens has a size matchup that Green Bay doesn’t typically have an archetype to cover, and with the Packers’ struggles at cornerback with tackling, CeeDee Lamb’s YAC ability could be a nightmare. Even former Wisconsin Badger Jake Ferguson is a matchup problem for their linebackers, with Zaire Franklin and Isaiah McDuffie being more “stumpy thumping” types. This is the first real test for Green Bay’s defense, and it’s going to tell us a lot about whether those early interception numbers were legit or just a statistical fluke against weak competition. For our own Hawks, seeing how those “noisy” turnover stats shake out for the Packers this week might just give us a preview of what our own defense needs to prove going forward.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Acme Packing Company.
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