Dylan Cease signed a massive seven-year, $210 million deal on December 2 last year, a contract some baseball commentators immediately slammed as the absolute worst free-agent signing of the off-season. Folks, those takes are looking colder than a September night, because Cease’s performance this season is absolutely silencing the doubters. Our own fan survey showed 42.9% were ‘Kind of Happy’ and 41.8% were ‘Very Happy’ with the move, meaning most of us knew something special was brewing.
The Turnaround That Blew Up Every Bad Take
Before landing this huge contract, Cease had spent two seasons with the Padres. He put up a solid 3.47 ERA with a 4.0 bWAR in 2024, but then took a step back in 2025 with a 4.55 ERA and just a 1.0 bWAR. Plenty of teams would have written him off, but the Jays saw something they thought they could “fix.” Usually, I’m dubious about teams saying that, but it turns out they were totally right. This guy, at age 30, has delivered a 5.7 WAR according to Baseball-Reference, and Fangraphs has him at 5.5, valuing his contribution at a whopping $43.9 million this season alone. How’s that for the “worst signing”? He’s gone 11-6 with an outstanding 2.40 ERA across 29 starts, throwing 169.0 innings with 239 strikeouts, including a complete game and a shutout. Talk about a comeback!
Digging Into the Dominance
Cease’s underlying numbers are just as electric as his win-loss record. He’s rocking a 2.56 FIP and a 2.93 xFIP. His BABIP dropped to .274 from .320 last year, and he’s stranding 77.8% of base runners, way up from 69.0%. His line drive rate is down to 20.4%, ground ball rate is up to 42.1%, and fly ball rate is down to 37.5%, with fewer of those fly balls leaving the park at 8.1%. He’s striking out batters at a ridiculous 34.9% clip, up from 29.8%. Plus, his soft contact rate is up to 21.6% and hard contact is down to 29.0%.
The dude was a beast on the road, posting a 1.94 ERA with opponents hitting just .162/.257/.234. He was even better in the second half of the season, with a 2.17 ERA. His July? Simply unreal: 3-1 record, a 1.00 ERA across five starts, with just two home runs allowed, 11 walks, and 46 strikeouts. August was nearly as good, with a 2.03 ERA. And get this: the Jays went 18-11 in his starts, despite averaging only 4.56 runs per game and scoring three or fewer in 11 of those outings. He really had to carry the load, didn’t he? Plus, Brandon Valenzuela caught nine of his games for a stellar 1.43 ERA.
As the calendar flips to October, Dylan Cease has undeniably silenced every single one of those early season critics. He wasn’t just “fixed,” he was totally retooled into a frontline ace. You love to see it when a player, and a team, trusts their gut and makes everyone eat crow. What a season for the pitcher everyone wrote off!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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