Week 5 was supposed to be a Chicago win, plain and simple. Most fans, media, and even the online betting sites had the Bears as favorites against the Packers, despite heading into Lambeau Field. What actually went down on Sunday, October 4th, 2026? A brutal 31-7 Green Bay victory, a complete gut punch that no one saw coming.
The Offensive Fizzle
The Pro Football Network’s Impact Scoring model lays bare just how tough that game was, especially on offense. Quarterback Tyson Bagent’s numbers are pretty rough, man. He pulled a 65.9 grade, ranking 24th out of 30 QBs for the week. His -0.41 EPA per dropback landed him at 26th in the NFL, and his -10.9 completion percentage over expected was only 28th among those 30 quarterbacks. Oof.
Really, the only skill position player who had a respectable performance from an analytical perspective was running back D’Andre Swift. He balled out with an 80.0 grade, good for 6th out of 42 RBs. Roschon Johnson had a 71.8 (26th), but the wideouts struggled: Luther Burden III at 70.8 (42nd of 66), Kalif Raymond at 67.7 (58th), and Rome Odunze at 65.2 (64th). Tight end Colston Loveland didn’t fare much better at 67.9 (34th of 37 TEs).
Up front, the guard tandem of Joe Thuney (77.7, 17th of 46 OGs) and Jonah Jackson (78.3, 14th of 46 OGs) did their job well, which is something. But it wasn’t all good on the line, either. Tackle Darnell Wright, who’s had a stellar 2026 season otherwise, had his worst game with a 71.9 grade (57th of 86 OTs). That’s a tough break when you need everyone clicking.
Defensive Highs and Lows
You’d think giving up 31 points means the defense was a complete wash, but PFN’s grades actually show a few encouraging individual performances. Edge rusher Austin Booker snagged an 86.5 grade, ranking him 4th out of 78 EDGEs, which is seriously impressive. Linebacker Devin Bush also showed up big, scoring an 86.3 and ranking 6th out of 66 LBs. Those are standout individual efforts, no doubt.
However, the overall defensive unit couldn’t quite put it all together. The source article points out a real lack of cohesion, making it impossible to stop the Packers, especially when they went vertical. Cornerbacks Malik Muhammad (62.7, 81st of 88 CBs) and Jaylon Johnson (61.2, 85th of 88 CBs) got beat, as did safety Xavier Woods (64.6, 62nd of 64 SAFs) multiple times. Even Montez Sweat, a big name, only posted a 56.1 (59th of 78 EDGEs). When your playmakers on the back end are getting toasted, it doesn’t matter how good a few guys up front are playing.
So, what’s next after a game where you were favored and got smoked 31-7, regardless of whether Tyson Bagent or Case Keenum was under center? The numbers tell a story of a team with a few bright spots, particularly on defense with Booker and Bush, but an offense that just couldn’t get it done and a defense that struggled with cohesion. This isn’t just a tough loss; it’s a Week 5 reality check for the entire squad. They’ve gotta figure out how to turn those individual flashes into a consistent team effort, fast.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply