Week 3 in college football is here, and listen up: those massive blowout wins we saw in the first two weeks? They’re setting up some serious traps for your wallets. Teams like No. 3 Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and Clemson racked up huge scores against weaker opponents, and now the betting numbers for this week are totally skewed because of it. We’ve got two weeks of scoreboard data, but that’s exactly where the market gets fooled. These favored teams are often priced on film from games that just don’t tell the full story. There are three underdogs on the board right now, each with their own unique reason why the favorite’s number is built on the wrong film.
The Notre Dame Spread That Makes No Sense
Notre Dame, sitting at No. 3 in the nation, has looked every bit the part with a 52-0 shellacking of Rice and a 41-13 win over Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. Their quarterback, CJ Carr, is throwing dimes, completing 71.4% of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. The defense is stingy too, giving up just 6.5 points per game and boasting a plus-six turnover margin. You see that, and the instinct is to lay the big number, right? But hold up. They’re laying 29.5 points to Michigan State, and that’s a huge ask when you look closer. Michigan State’s quarterback, Alessio Milivojevic, has completed 70.4% of his passes for 417 yards with zero interceptions. Running back Cam Edwards has piled up 250 yards on 48 carries. Here’s the kicker: the Spartans hold the ball for 37:18 per game, second in the entire country! That kind of ball control, whether they mean to or not, shortens the game. Notre Dame’s own run game is only averaging 114.5 yards per game, 116th nationally, so they aren’t built to manufacture extra drives in a shortened game. Plus, the Irish red zone defense has allowed scores on two of every three trips, ranking 120th nationally. Our score projection puts this game at 41-14, Notre Dame by 27. Bill Connelly’s SP+ model agrees, pegging it at 41-13. This isn’t a bet on Michigan State being a world-beater; it’s a bet that a team that plays keep away and avoids turnovers rarely loses by 30 points. You gotta take Michigan State +29.5.
Oklahoma’s “Blowout” Is Hiding a Real Problem
Oklahoma absolutely destroyed UTEP 51-0, and yeah, John Mateer threw three touchdowns before the backups even saw the field. So, the number of them laying 23.5 against New Mexico is built on that kind of dominance. It’s easy to picture Oklahoma winning by four touchdowns. But you need to remember what happened last week in Ann Arbor. Oklahoma put up a measly 10 points and 289 yards against Michigan, a real defense. Mateer finished that game 17-of-33 for 189 yards, with one touchdown and a fourth-quarter interception that literally set up the winning score for Michigan. New Mexico has faced Central Michigan and Mercyhurst, so their early wins don’t tell us much, but the real question is whether Oklahoma’s offense can consistently get into the 30s against a legitimate opponent. They haven’t proven it yet.
This early season action always brings surprises, and the biggest one might be how easily these huge Week 1 and 2 scores fool us. Don’t fall for the hype of those blowouts. Dig into the real numbers, look at how teams actually play when it matters, and you might find some real value in backing the underdog this weekend.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply