The Steelers are sitting pretty at 6-2, holding onto sole possession of the AFC North as they head into their Week 9 bye. Everyone’s been whispering, though: Is this second half schedule really as brutal as it looks? It is a question that could shape their entire postseason probability.
Looks Tougher, Right? Not So Fast.
So, let’s break it down. Before the bye, Pittsburgh went up against the Falcons, Patriots, Bengals, Browns (twice!), Colts, Buccaneers, and Saints. They played four games where the opponent had a winning record at midseason, losing to New England (now 5-3), beating Cincinnati (now 5-2), and splitting the series with Cleveland (5-3). Now, after the bye, they’re set to face the Bengals again, plus the Eagles (2-6), Broncos (6-2), Texans (2-5), Jaguars (5-2), Ravens (4-4; twice), Panthers (3-4), and Titans (1-7). At first glance, yeah, that looks like a tougher run. The Jaguars, and maybe even the Broncos, could be better than anyone the Steelers have played so far. The Panthers, even with that crummy record, might just be the best team in a weak NFC South. And we all know the Texans, who started 0-4, have gone 2-1 in their last three. And those Ravens? They’re always a slugfest, no matter what.
The Stats Tell a Different Story
But here’s the kicker: Does that group of teams actually look weaker now than it did before the season even started? You bet it does. Out of their final nine opponents, only three currently have winning records. Sure, two of those matchups are against the Ravens, who are currently sitting at .500. But if you compare the combined midseason winning percentages, it’s incredibly close. The first eight opponents? A combined 0.484. The last nine? A stunningly similar 0.471. That’s not the massive jump in difficulty you’d expect, is it? Plus, just like they dodged starting quarterbacks against the Falcons and Buccaneers earlier, they’re likely going to get Joe Milton under center for the Eagles game and Jacoby Brissett for at least one of those Ravens matchups, until Lamar Jackson possibly returns. Of course, injuries are a brutal part of football, and all these teams will probably have new, meaningful injuries by Week 18. And while Pittsburgh gets four home games in each half of the season, it’s worth noting their next five matchups are outside the usual 1 p.m. EST Sunday time slot.
You could absolutely argue that the second half of the schedule is going to be harder, and I probably would, too. But the difference just isn’t as extreme as everyone thought. That’s fantastic news for the Steelers. With a 77% postseason probability right now, per NFL.com, and sitting as the AFC’s third seed at 6-2, their road to the playoffs is looking quite promising heading out of the bye week.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Behind the Steel Curtain.
Leave a Reply