Indiana, a team power-rated in the 40s out of 100 before Curt Cignetti’s arrival, absolutely blew up the college football landscape last season, finishing as the 2025 National Champions. They ended that incredible run with a market power rating in the high-90s, a jump that makes your head spin and shows just how wild the game has gotten. Forget what you thought you knew about loyalty and building a program, because the betting market is screaming that everything has changed.
The NIL Carousel Just Went Supersonic
Jerry Seinfeld once said we’re all just cheering for laundry in pro sports because players churn through. For college ball, it always felt different, right? Alumni ties, community connection, that four-year bond. But the NIL era? It’s cranked that player churn to eleven. Campuses are commuter schools now, players and coaches passing through like turnstiles. This shift isn’t just a vibe, it’s reflected directly in the betting market. Indiana’s rise is the ultimate proof: they went from a below-average 40s rating before Cignetti to a College Football Playoff team in the 70s by the end of 2024, culminating in that high-90s championship season. Cignetti’s cultural revolution and a massive alumni base in Bloomington fueled that insane trajectory. And don’t sleep on Texas Tech, either: they had a more modest but similar rise, powered by a singular donor getting them Big 12 prominence. If your school doesn’t have that combo, you’re probably still stuck with “the more things change, the more they stay the same” vibes.
LSU’s Wild Swings and USC’s Internal Bet
As we gear up for the 2026 season, most of the 138 FBS teams are rated pretty close to their usual spots. But a handful? The NIL carousel has totally flipped the market’s perception, both up and down. Take LSU: last season they were at a 60 rating, now they’re back up to an 83! “Usual” for LSU means national title contention, but the Brian Kelly “era” had them in also-ran territory. They were rated in the mid-60s at the end of 2024, expected to be a contender in the 80s, but then had a catastrophic 2025. Now, the Lane Kiffin debacle last season, the giant NIL budget that lured Kiffin to Baton Rouge, and that public craving for those insane night games in Death Valley have sent their market rating skyrocketing back. We’re gonna need to see it to believe it, though.
Then there’s USC. Lincoln Riley couldn’t get it done with Caleb Williams, despite bringing him from Oklahoma. Now it’s “Part 2,” building internally. They went from a 70 last season to a 78 this season, and the market is buying in, at least to a degree. Their top-rated 2026 recruiting class, per 247sports, should really start making an impact in the seasons to come.
These market ratings aren’t just numbers, they’re a giant blinking light on where to focus for 2026. Everyone’s looking for the next Indiana, that team that defies gravity. The betting market’s laid out the map. Now we just gotta watch the games unfold and see who actually delivers.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
Leave a Reply