Giving up a brutal 21 fourth-quarter points to Texas, Ohio State got absolutely stunned, and that early-season loss has already set the narrative for their entire College Football Playoff journey. Everyone knew the Buckeyes had a razor-thin margin for error this season because of their incredibly treacherous schedule, but losing a narrative-setting showdown with the Longhorns was not the start anyone wanted. Now, this elite roster with endless resources and huge playoff expectations has to prove they can absorb that punch and come back swinging harder than ever.
A Gauntlet Ahead and Zero Style Points to Waste
Ryan Day’s squad let Texas hang around way too long in that second half before Arch Manning and the Longhorns exploded. Now, with Big Ten play kicking off later this month, Ohio State needs serious “style points” and a whole bunch of remaining wins to guarantee a return trip to the 12-team bracket. Look at this remaining schedule: they hit the road to face No. 21 Iowa on October 3, then No. 5 Indiana on October 17, and No. 14 USC on October 31. Then they’ve got two monster home games against No. 6 Oregon on November 7 and their rivalry clash with Michigan on November 28. That’s four games against nationally-ranked competition, and it will probably be five if Michigan claws its way back into the rankings this week. This is not getting any easier.
Three Paths Forward, But One Is a Disaster
There are still paths to the CFP, but the easiest one is getting tougher by the minute. The clearest way in is an 11-1 record, where they tighten the screws, run the table, and win the Big Ten title. If they can manage that, there is no need to panic. The likeliest path, though, sees them take one more loss for a 10-2 record and still play for a Big Ten title. This scenario puts them roughly around an 8-seed, and Coach Day can genuinely tell his team they are still in this, but they must bring their absolute best every single game from here on out. They still have some margin for error, but it shrinks fast with every Big Ten loss. Ohio State is still favored to make the CFP at -145, ranking sixth-best among all college football teams.
However, the danger scenario is a 9-3 season. Listen up: no three-loss team has EVER made the College Football Playoff without first appearing in a conference championship game. While they *could* potentially absorb a three-loss season, that’s incredibly unlikely unless one of those losses happens in the Big Ten Championship Game itself. This schedule is relentless, and the Buckeyes cannot afford any more missteps.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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