Home underdogs have been getting absolutely shredded in the NFL so far, with a dismal one victory and just three covers in eight chances through two weeks. It’s been tough out there for teams catching points on their own turf, but Week 3 could be where the script finally flips. You gotta trust your gut sometimes, and the numbers are hinting at a couple of spots where the underdog might just bark back.
The Nine-Game Losing Streak That Hides a Fight
Look, betting on a team that’s lost nine straight games, covered the spread just three times in that slump, and zero times at home? A team that’s also dropped five straight to its division rival? Yeah, the Indianapolis Colts against the Texans looks rough on paper. But hear me out, because there’s more to this story than a quick glance suggests. The Colts opened their season facing two certified Super Bowl contenders in Baltimore and Kansas City, and they showed some real grit. Against the Ravens, they fell into a 28-6 hole, sure, but they outscored Baltimore 17-13 from that point on. Then last Sunday night, they had the Chiefs on the ropes for over 60 minutes, ultimately falling 33-30 in overtime as a 6-point underdog. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been “so-so” returning from his Achilles injury, putting up 41-for-62 for 376 yards, two TDs, and two INTs. But Jonathan Taylor, his main man in the backfield, has been an absolute beast, racking up 253 scrimmage yards and four rushing touchdowns. Losing top wide receiver Alec Pierce for multiple weeks to a heel injury hurts, and the defense absolutely needs to step up, but I just don’t trust this Texans team. They’ve dropped their first two home games, giving up 56 points, committing four turnovers, and forcing zero. C.J. Stroud’s got just two TD passes for his 627 passing yards, has been sacked 13 times in his last four games, and thrown seven picks in his last three road contests. Plus, Indy hasn’t started 0-3 since 2021, or 0-3 against the spread since 2015. This feels like a moment.
After Seattle’s Hammering, Arizona Is Still a Smart Play
We all saw it, Emerald City. That Arizona Cardinals second-half against Seattle last week was brutal. After actually tying the game with three seconds left in the first half, they got completely steamrolled 24-0 over the final 30 minutes, losing 31-7. It was a tough one for them, and they came into the season projected to be an NFL bottom-feeder. So, why in the heck would you feel confident in them going on the road against a 49ers team that’s looked utterly dominant? Here’s why: Arizona’s defense was actually pretty terrific through the first six quarters of 2026. Before that second-half collapse last week, they’d only given up three total touchdowns and 394 combined yards to the Chargers and us, the Seahawks. And let’s not forget their history against the 49ers from a betting perspective. They’ve covered in three of their last four meetings, including a 24-23 upset in San Francisco as a 7.5-point underdog in Week 5 of 2024. Going back a decade, they’re 7-2-1 against the spread at Levi’s Stadium. The Niners have been crushing it, beating the “unprepared Rams” 27-7 in Australia and then “obliterating the god-awful Dolphins” 35-13 at home. This Week 3 game has “letdown/trap game” written all over it for San Francisco.
So, as we head into Week 3, keep an eye on these matchups. Can the Colts finally break their losing streak and cover the spread? Can the Cardinals, despite that second-half beatdown from Seattle, find a way to compete against a red-hot 49ers team? The stakes are high for these underdogs to prove they’re more than just easy points.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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