Only four weeks into the season, and things are already getting wild in the NFL. An analytics expert, Stephen Oh, just dropped a bombshell after simulating every single one of the 208 remaining regular-season games and all 13 playoff matchups: both the 3-1 Las Vegas Raiders and 3-1 Cleveland Browns are projected to miss the postseason entirely. Yeah, you heard that right, a 3-1 record means nothing for these two in the long run, according to the numbers.
AFC Playoff Picture Gets Intense After Week 4
While some teams are getting the cold shoulder from the simulation, others are looking golden. The AFC playoff field, as projected for the end of the season, has the Chiefs leading the charge at 4-0 as the AFC West champion. Right behind them are the Jaguars at 3-1, projected AFC South champions. Remember Pete Prisco predicting a Jags Super Bowl win pre-season? Well, the computer is basically saying he’s a prophet, because they’re looking like they will finish near the top of the conference. Rounding out the division winners are the Bills (3-1, AFC East) and the Ravens (3-1, AFC North).
The wild-card spots are projected to go to the Colts (2-2), Broncos (2-2), and the Patriots (2-2). That seventh spot for the Patriots was a real battle in the simulation, with New England edging out the Bengals on a tiebreaker. If that actually plays out, you can bet Zac Taylor’s job security is going to be a huge topic heading into the offseason. Talk about high stakes already!
Brutal Schedules and Lack of Wins Tanking Early Surprises
Now, back to those 3-1 teams getting left out in the cold. The computer isn’t being kind to the Raiders or the Browns, despite their strong starts. For the Raiders, it’s all about a brutal upcoming schedule. Four of their next five games are against powerhouses like the Patriots, Bills, Rams, and 49ers. That’s a gauntlet, and the simulation sees them faltering hard. As for the Browns, the projection has them finishing with eight wins. Good for them, sure, but not nearly enough to punch a ticket to the dance. And hey, the Chargers? Yeah, the computer and pretty much everyone agrees they’re not making the playoffs either.
On the other side of the coin, the Atlanta Falcons are apparently “officially arrived on the scene.” They’ve won two straight games in blowout fashion, and the computer is so impressed it now projects them to win the NFC South. Who saw that coming?
It’s only Week 5, but these projections from Stephen Oh’s simulations are setting up some wild narratives. We’re nearly 25% through the regular season, and if these numbers hold even close to true, some teams are about to face some serious adversity. Keep your eyes peeled as the next few weeks unfold; every game from here on out is going to start proving or disproving these crazy predictions.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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