Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner for the Pittsburgh Pirates, is absolutely grinding this season, and while we’ve all seen his fastball velocity dip and his changeup fall flat, there’s another reason for his struggles that’s just wild.
The “Luck” Factor Is No Joke
ESPN’s David Schoenfield dropped the bomb, revealing a huge piece of the puzzle: Skenes is just getting absolutely hosed by bad luck. Schoenfield highlights “worse luck on balls in play” as a primary cause. Think about it: this guy, who was literally the best pitcher in the National League last year, is suddenly seeing a ton of balls find holes. And yeah, it probably doesn’t help that the Pittsburgh defense behind him is described as “porous.” You can have the nastiest stuff in the league, but if everything in play turns into a hit, what are you gonna do?
Skenes’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) this season is sitting at a brutal .310. For those who aren’t constantly checking their fantasy stats, that means when hitters put the ball in play against Skenes, they’re batting .310. That’s a bad number, full stop. It tells you that even when he’s making good pitches, the results just aren’t going his way. While a porous defense might explain some of that, this kind of luck can feel like a punch to the gut for any pitcher. It’s definitely playing a role in his 4.97 ERA since May 17, even if it doesn’t fully explain it.
Beyond the Bad Breaks: What’s Really Going On?
Now, is it *all* bad luck? Probably not. Schoenfield pointed out that while his BABIP is part of it, it alone “doesn’t explain his 4.97 ERA since May 17.” We already knew about the fastball velocity dip and the less impressive changeup. Those are tangible, skill-based issues. But the BABIP jump is undeniable. Looking back, Skenes had a .284 BABIP in 2024 and an even better .273 in 2025. That’s a significant leap to .310, and it’s clear this shift is contributing to why he’s struggling so much this season.
It’s tempting to want a simple answer, but it’s rarely that easy in baseball. Just look at Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who’s likely heading for a top-three Cy Young finish himself this year. His BABIP is even higher, at .337! So, while BABIP is a luck-based stat and a major factor for Skenes, it’s not the *only* thing sinking his season. Pirates fans can, to a certain extent, blame bad luck for this rough fall-off from their ace in 2026. But they also know he’s got to find a way to make his own luck.
What’s next for the former Cy Young winner? It’s a tough spot. With his BABIP jumping and his stuff not quite as sharp as last year, Skenes needs to figure out how to navigate these challenges. Can he pitch around the bad luck? Can he regain that velocity and make his changeup a weapon again? The season’s not over, and every start from here on out is going to be crucial for Skenes to prove he’s still that dominant force, even when the baseball gods seem to be against him.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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