Esmerlyn Valdez is absolutely red-hot right now, crushing dingers and driving in runs at a pace almost unheard of in MLB history. The dude just mashed another homer Monday, making it 12 long balls and 33 RBI in his first 32 career games. Think about that: he’s only the fourth player *ever* to hit at least 12 homers and 31 RBI in their first 31 games. Since coming back from Triple-A on June 11, Valdez is tied for fourth in the majors in homers. His .485 wOBA entering Tuesday led *all* players. Seriously, if you’re not seeing Valdez’s name everywhere, you haven’t been watching.
Making History, But For How Long?
We’re talking about a historic power surge here. Valdez is pretty much 100% rostered everywhere for good reason. He’s been electrifying the league, but we have to ask the tough question: can he keep this up? When you look at the other three players who had similar scorching starts, the picture gets a little blurry. Remember Aristides Aquino? That electric young power hitter blasted 15 homers in his first 32 games in 2019. He was striking out at a 23.3% clip then, which is high. But after that insane run, he hit just four more homers in his next 24 games and his strikeout rate ballooned to 31%. He never became an everyday player again. Yikes.
The Red Flags Are Waving
Then there’s Rhys Hoskins, who hit 16 homers in his first 32 games. He looked like a machine, even homering in his 33rd and 34th games. But his season ended hitting a measly .179/.342/.339 with a 27% strikeout rate. Hoskins eventually became a really good hitter, but contact issues always made his margin for error super slim. Even a genuine star like Will Smith, who had 12 homers in his first 32 games, couldn’t keep up that initial pace, closing out his rookie season hitting .200/.296/.343 over his final 22 games, all while striking out 29% of the time. The track record for these kinds of starts is, well, not great. All three players with comparable rookie stretches crashed hard.
Here’s the kicker: Valdez’s skill set looks even more precarious than theirs. He struck out two more times Monday, pushing his strikeout rate to an alarming 38% of his plate appearances. His 66.5% zone contact rate? That’s an absolute disaster. The only player close to that is Munetaka Murakami, and even he hits the ball harder and has a better approach to compensate. Even Murakami looks lost since his hamstring injury a few weeks back. Valdez’s swing decisions are generally pretty good, but there’s just so much swing and miss in his game. He might end up being a Rhys Hoskins, which is a pretty good outcome, but Hoskins’ career was always a battle with contact.
Look, nobody’s saying Valdez is definitely another Aquino, but the numbers don’t lie. That strikeout rate is a huge flashing red light. For us here in the Emerald City, while we’re keeping an eye on these league-wide stories, we also had something to cheer about recently! Our Mariners just shut down the Cincinnati Reds with a dominant 8-0 win. That’s the kind of performance we love to see and something to keep us hyped!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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