Washington is coming off a game they should have won against a divisional foe, and that kind of contest can mess with a team’s head. Since 2022, the Commanders have managed just one win the week after playing the New York Giants, with six of those losses being by at least a touchdown. Talk about a tough rebound.
Washington’s Wobbly Legs Meet a Wall in San Francisco
The Commanders’ ground game isn’t exactly lighting it up this season, ranking 12th in EPA per rush and 19th in rushing success rate. They are middle of the pack in yards after contact, but they’re fourth in yards before contact per attempt, which hints their scheme has some smarts behind it. But even a good scheme needs players, and they are going into this game without their leading rusher, Bill Croskey-Merritt, who has double the carries of any other running back on the roster. The only other player with a double-digit run this season is Rachaad White, and his last 70+ yard rushing game was back in December 2024. Overall, the running backs are sitting at a 37.6% success rate and average a dismal -0.159 EPA per carry. Yikes.
The real spark for Washington’s ground attack comes from Jayden Daniels’ legs. The dude ran for 103 yards against the Giants last week and racked up 69 yards against Dallas in Week 2. Daniels is an excellent runner, no doubt, boasting the second-most scramble yards this season and averaging an incredible 12.6 yards per carry on those runs. He’s generated nine explosive runs, which is tied with Josh Allen for the most in the league. However, the Niners’ strategy will be to rush Daniels with integrity and keep him locked in the pocket. The 49ers run zone coverage 83% of the time, the fourth-highest clip in the league, while Dallas and Washington are both top-10 in man coverage usage, which could explain Daniels’ scrambling success.
The Niners’ Run Defense Is No Joke, And It’s Getting Better
Conversely, the 49ers have flat-out owned the NFC East, winning eight of their previous nine games against the division, with that one loss being the 2022 NFC Championship Game, which you could argue had a giant asterisk next to it. These guys have dominated this division, even when they’ve been undermanned. And for this Week 6 matchup, it’s hard to see things changing when you consider the Commanders are allowing 29.8 points per game, which is a point less than what the 49ers are *scoring*. That’s not a recipe for success, Washington.
The biggest surprise for the 49ers this season has to be their incredibly stout run defense. They’re rocking a 41.5% rushing success rate, which is five percentage points better than their first five games last season, and it’s good enough for sixth in the NFL. They’re also sitting sixth in EPA per rush. The Niners have allowed the second-fewest scramble yards in the NFL and have faced only five scrambles, the fewest in the league. They’re limiting quarterbacks to just 5.6 yards per carry, the sixth-lowest mark, and they even kept Malik Willis in check against Miami. Leading the NFL in explosive rush rate and rush rate over expectation, it’s just not in their DNA to give up the big play on the ground.
Look, the Commanders are gonna try to land a few punches, especially with Daniels scrambling. But when you stack it all up, the Niners’ haymakers, particularly that brick wall of a run defense, look set to completely overcome Washington in this one. It’s gonna be a tough day at the office for Daniels and that Commanders’ offense.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Niners Nation.
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