Look, I hate to say it, but the Niners’ offense is absolutely rolling right now, and guess who’s next on their schedule? Yep, us. Sunday’s monster matchup with the Seattle Seahawks is looming, and they’re bringing some serious firepower to the Emerald City. Brock Purdy is playing the best football of his career, Kyle Shanahan’s play calls have been perfectly timed, and their offensive line is a top-five unit in the league. Even with bumps and bruises to Mike Evans and losing guys like Demarcus Robinson, De’Zhaun Stribling, and Ricky Pearsall, this offense just keeps trucking.
Heavy Personnel? No Problem For These Guys
So, what’s their secret sauce? According to Football Insights, the 49ers are tied for first in the entire NFL with the Baltimore Ravens, rocking a 0.25 EPA from heavy personnel packages. That’s right, two or fewer wide receivers on the field, and they’re tied for the top spot. They run this heavy look 68% of the time, which is the second-highest rate in the league behind only the Raiders. When they do, they’ve got a fantastic 59.7% success rate and an explosive play rate of 14.4%. They’re basically daring you to stop their run game, and it’s working.
But Wait, There’s More: Spreading It Out Is Even Scarier
Here’s where it gets even crazier for us: when the 49ers *do* decide to spread it out with three or more receivers, they lead the entire league with a ridiculous 0.33 EPA. Yeah, you heard that right. They don’t use it a ton, with the second-lowest rate at just 32% of their snaps. But when they do, their 58.1% success rate is the absolute best in the NFL, and their 16.7% explosive play rate is good for third-highest. So they can pound the rock, *or* they can torch you deep. It’s a lose-lose for opposing defenses.
Digging Deeper Into Their Groupings
A deeper dive into their personnel groupings shows just how consistent they are. The 49ers have three of the top EPA performances in the top 12 across any grouping in the league. They’ve got 72 plays from 11 personnel (that’s fifth in the NFL) with a total EPA of 23.90 and a insane 0.49 EPA/pass. Think about that: the league average for passing from that grouping is 56.19% and an average EPA of -0.03. These guys are at a 68.06% pass rate with that huge positive EPA.
Then there’s 12 personnel, where they rank tenth in the NFL with a total EPA of 14.15 from just 34 plays. That’s actually good for second among all teams out of that grouping, with positive EPA on both pass (0.80) and rush (0.03). The league average usage for 12 personnel is 21.87% and an EPA of -0.01. And get this: their most utilized grouping by far is 21 personnel, at 40.79% of their plays (93 out of 228). Even though it’s their 11th-best EPA performance overall, they are the number one offense from 21 personnel with a total EPA of 13.39, while the league average sits at a lowly 6.73% with an EPA of -0.06. They pass 38.71% of the time from 21 and still pull off an 0.18 EPA/pass and 0.12 EPA/rush. This offense is just flat out efficient and explosive, period.
The Biggest Test Awaits
Alright, Sunday. This is it. Our Seattle Seahawks defense, under Coach Macdonald, is about to face its biggest test of the season. This 49ers offense has proven it can be efficient and explosive from almost any look, and this is our chance to show that our top-flight defense can take them down. It won’t be easy, but we need to step up big time and prove we can shut down this well-oiled machine. Go Hawks!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Niners Nation.
Leave a Reply