The Minnesota Vikings are the biggest surprise among undefeated teams this season, hands down. Just a little over a month ago, before the season even kicked off, national pundits pegged their over/under win total at 8.5 and pretty much guaranteed them last place in the NFC North. Fast forward five weeks, and these guys are 5-0, clear favorites to win the division, and their win total has shot up to 11.5, although with a sneaky bias towards the under. Seriously, what a turnaround.
Pundits Got It So Wrong, Especially on Defense
Let’s be real, the pre-season chatter about the Vikings was brutal. Everyone thought Kyler Murray might bring a slight bump to the offense, but that any gains would get completely wiped out by a defense everyone expected to fall off. Remember the skepticism about Murray? Questions about his fit with Kevin O’Connell’s offense, worries he peaked years ago, and of course, the big one: could he even stay healthy? Well, so far, the Murray doubters are kinda right. The offense hasn’t exactly lit up the stat sheet compared to last season when J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer were slinging it, and Murray has already missed essentially two games with a concussion.
But the defense? Man, the pundits totally whiffed on that one. They predicted a step back, maybe a fringe top ten unit, but definitely closer to average than top five. Losing Jonathan Greenard, and letting Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave walk, plus those Harrison Smith questions, all factored into that. Turns out, that view was DEAD wrong. This Vikings defense has become the top unit in the entire league by almost every major metric. We’re talking points allowed, EPA, DVOA,they’re crushing it.
Special Teams Is Special, But Are They Frauds?
It’s not just the defense carrying the load either. The Vikings have also popped off as the top special teams unit in the league. All-Pro Will Reichard has been absolutely perfect on the season, which is huge, and Myles Price has upped his game significantly as both a punt and kick returner. He even took one to the house already! And don’t forget Isaiah Rodgers blocking a field goal attempt. That’s big-time stuff that adds to their special teams dominance.
Overall, when you look at all three phases, the Vikings are actually tied with the also-undefeated 49ers for the top EPA/play after five weeks. That’s the analytics community’s golden standard for efficiency, so that’s a massive stat. But here’s the wild part: despite being 5-0 and statistically elite, the betting markets are looking at them sideways. They view the Vikings as among the most likely potential frauds in the league, meaning their current 5-0 record might not stack up to what an average 5-0 team usually projects to finish. It’s a crazy disconnect, and it makes you wonder what they’re seeing that we aren’t. Can this team keep proving everyone wrong, or is there a shoe waiting to drop? The next few weeks are going to be wild.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Daily Norseman.
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