The Patriots kicked off last season with a home loss to the lowly Raiders, and for anyone who had New England in their Week 1 NFL survivor pool, that was a brutal wake-up call. It proves there are no guarantees when it comes to knockout picks, even with what looks like a sure thing.
Don’t Fall for the Obvious Play
With Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season just days away, everyone is looking for that perfect survivor pick. But here’s the kicker: only three teams are favored by more than 5.5 points in their season openers. We’re talking about the Lions (-7) versus the Saints, the Jaguars (-8.5) against the Browns, and the Chargers (-9.5) versus the Cardinals. That Chargers line is the biggest spread out there. You might be tempted to jump on L.A., right? Hold up.
SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert, R.J. White, who’s gone 803-705-41 against the spread over the last nine years and delivered a 55% hit rate on Vegas contest picks, says you need to play the long game. A team with a solid Week 1 matchup might have an even better one later in the season. That means sometimes you bypass a strong opener to save a team for when they’re truly invaluable.
L.A.’s O-Line Is a Major Red Flag
So, who is R.J. White telling us to avoid? It’s the Chargers against the Cardinals, despite them being a huge 9.5-point favorite. Think about it: they were favored back in 2024 when they last played Arizona, and they still lost! That’s a bad vibe to start the season.
But the biggest reason to steer clear? Their offensive line is basically a whole new crew. Left tackle Joe Alt only played six games in 2025, and right tackle Rashawn Slater missed the entire year. Plus, all three interior linemen are new additions. Any new O-line needs time to gel, and Week 1 is a risky time to bet on that process. Plus, L.A. has several appetizing matchups down the road, including Week 2 against the Raiders. Save them for a safer spot.
Don’t let that huge Week 1 spread fool you into making a costly mistake. The season is a marathon, not a sprint, especially in survivor pools. You gotta be smart with your picks, and R.J. White’s advice to sidestep the Chargers in Week 1 is definitely something to seriously consider.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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