The San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys are set to add another chapter to their storied rivalry this Sunday, and if Vegas is right with the weekend’s highest implied total, we’re in for an absolute shootout. The 49ers have been on a serious run, holding a winning streak over the Cowboys spanning several years, and this game looks like it’ll be another high-scoring affair with both offenses ready to fire. On the Dallas side, Christian Parker, who used to be the pass game coordinator and defensive backs coach for the Eagles under Vic Fangio, took over as defensive coordinator this season. Let’s just say, things haven’t exactly gone to plan for that unit.
Shanahan’s Ground Game Is About to Feast
If you think the 49ers’ rushing attack hasn’t been dominant, think again. It’s not just good, it’s number one in practically every reliable metric you can find. We’re talking top of the league in EPA/play at 0.14, crushing with a 52.1% success rate, and leading the pack in total EPA at a whopping 66.26 (Buffalo’s a distant second at 53.09). Plus, they lead in EPA/rush, where Buffalo is at 0.05, and boast a league-high success rate on the ground at 50.4%. That’s just unreal.
Now, how’s Dallas’ defense looking against that kind of firepower? Not great, bob. They’re ranked 27th in the NFL with an EPA/rush allowed of -0.02 and sit 25th in success rate allowed on the ground at 43.2%. Last week, the 49ers faced the worst run defense in the league, and this Sunday? They’re going up against the second-worst in Dallas, who’s coughed up 1,327 rushing yards and 4.99 rushing yards per attempt. Dallas’ heavy box count rate is only 18.1%, good for 30th in the NFL, so even trying to load up the box probably won’t do much. You can bet that 40-carry number is in the 49ers’ sights for a second straight week. Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy are going to keep Cowboys linebackers, like Dee Winters, in a bind all game long.
Motion Mayhem and Dak’s Blitz Blind Spot
The 49ers don’t just run the ball well, they move bodies around like no one else. They hold a slight edge over the Miami Dolphins for the league’s highest motion percentage at 73.6% to Miami’s 73.2%. And it’s not just about the volume, it’s the kind of motion, like those banana motions from Kyle Juszczyk, that cause so much trouble. Motion helps them change number counts in the run game and identify coverages in the pass game, and it’s a huge part of their attack. Dallas, meanwhile, is dead last with a 0.11 EPA allowed per play against motion. Yeah, good luck trying to figure that out, Dallas. The 49ers are also fourth in motion at snap with 50.6%.
On the other side of the ball, let’s talk about Dak Prescott. The 49ers, under Raheem Morris, are primarily a zone coverage defense, specifically Cover 3, even with a slight increase in man coverage looks. Dak has actually been pretty good against Cover 3, punishing it with his third-highest EPA per play of 0.231, averaging 7.9 YPA on 79 attempts. But hit him with Cover 0, which is a blitz coverage, and suddenly things get rough. Prescott struggled mightily with an EPA of -0.27 in those situations. So, what’s Raheem Morris going to dial up on Sunday?
This Sunday’s game is shaping up to be a classic, with the 49ers looking to extend their dominance over the Cowboys. The stakes are clear: can Dallas’s struggling defense find a way to stop one of the league’s most potent offenses, or will Kyle Shanahan’s machine just keep rolling? Get ready to watch the fireworks!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Niners Nation.
Leave a Reply