The Green Bay Packers have played the 31st easiest schedule in the entire NFL through their first four games, ranking as the second-easiest schedule in the league, only behind the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. But here’s the kicker: they’re sitting at a deeply disappointing 2-2 record. Now, buckle up, because according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the easy ride is officially over, and the path ahead looks brutal. The FPI, which measures team strength and predicts future performance based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, says Green Bay faces the second-hardest schedule in the league from Weeks 5 to 18. This is where we find out what this team is really made of.
Easy Street Is Over
Let’s break down how “easy” those first four games really were for the Packers. They opened against the Minnesota Vikings, who are 4-0, but get this: Minnesota is the first NFL team to start 4-0 without scoring a touchdown in two of those games since the 1934 Detroit Lions. Talk about weird. Then, it was the New York Jets, who are 1-3, but honestly, I think the Jets are a little underrated. Next up, the Atlanta Falcons, who were 1-2, and there was a noticeable difference for them when Michael Penix Jr. was under center. Finally, they faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, currently 0-4. Seriously, the only team with a winning record they’ve played so far is that strange 4-0 Vikings squad. We all kinda knew the Packers got a good break to start the season, especially considering their injury situation, but nobody expected them to just scrape by at 2-2, especially after suffering four season-ending injuries in those first four weeks. Their point differential is sitting at a concerning -32, which is just not where you want to be.
The Gauntlet Begins
So, what’s coming next? The FPI is not messing around. This team needs to buckle down, because the schedule difficulty is only going to get tougher. Starting in Week 5, it’s a whole new ball game. They kick off a brutal stretch at home against the 3-1 Chicago Bears, then Dallas (2-2), and a road trip to Detroit (2-2). Weeks 8 and 9 bring Carolina (2-2) and New England (2-2). Then they face the 4-0 Minnesota Vikings again in Week 10 before their bye. After that, it’s a visit to the Rams (2-2), then New Orleans (1-2, though they could be 2-2 by the end of Monday’s action), and a huge showdown against the 3-1 Buffalo Bills. Even the “easier” teams on the back half aren’t exactly cakewalks when you look at the numbers. While the 0-4 Dolphins (worst in the league at -55 point differential) and the 0-4 Texans (-25 point differential) are sub-.500, Houston has kept games closer than the Packers, and the Saints have a crazy -2 point differential despite their 1-2 record. The only team left on Green Bay’s schedule with a worse point differential than them is Miami. This isn’t a team that can afford to coast.
This is the turning point, folks. The Packers needed to take advantage of that soft opening, especially with their injury woes. Now, they face a legitimate test against some strong teams and teams that are playing better than their record. Week 5 against the Bears isn’t just another game, it’s the start of a season-defining stretch. They need to find their groove, and fast.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Acme Packing Company.
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