The Milwaukee Brewers are absolutely rolling, hitting the World Series as favorites with home field advantage and fresh off sweeping the defending champions. But hold up, don’t sleep on the Tampa Bay Rays; they’re a legit team that earned this spot, and winning it all is gonna be a massive uphill climb. Forget all the usual factors, because there’s one specific pitch that could decide this whole dang series, something ESPN’s Jeff Passan highlighted: the changeup.
The Changeup Chess Match Is ON
Passan didn’t pull any punches, saying the Rays are straight up “changeup specialists.” Think about that: they’ve got this one pitch they lean on, and it’s been their bread and butter all season. Now, here’s where it gets wild: only 41% of those changeups actually hit the strike zone. Forty-one percent! The Rays’ pitching staff uses this thing *often*, which means a whole lot of pitches are gonna be outside the zone. For the Brewers to win, they gotta lay off those out-of-zone changeups.
Milwaukee’s Mission: Lay Off The Junk
Here’s the good news for Milwaukee: Passan also pointed out that the Brewers had the *lowest chase rate* on out-of-zone changeups in the entire big leagues. That’s huge! If that trend holds up, they are in great shape. Guys like Jackson Chourio and William Contreras, along with the rest of the Brewers’ lineup, gotta stay locked in, stay disciplined, and not let the pressure of the World Series get to ’em. If they can stay patient and turn those out-of-zone changeups into balls instead of chases, they’ll neutralize one of the Rays’ biggest strengths that helped them get here in the first place. This isn’t just a minor detail either. Teams like the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians couldn’t figure it out against the Rays’ changeup. This one pitch could literally swing the entire 2026 World Series.
So yeah, there’s a ton that goes into a World Series, but Passan’s right: this isn’t just any pitch. This one specific changeup is going to play a *major* role, way more than you’d usually expect from a single pitch type in October. Brewers fans, get ready, this is going to be a battle of wills, and it all starts with recognizing that changeup.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by The Sporting News.
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