Week 1 of the NFL season kicks off in just three days, and if you’re like me, your survivor pool strategy is already in full swing. But pump the brakes! The advanced SportsLine Projection Model just locked in its top Week 1 NFL survivor picks, and its biggest warning shot is aimed squarely at anyone considering the Dallas Cowboys. This computer model, simulating every game 10,000 times, is basically screaming to avoid America’s Team right out of the gate.
The Model’s Warning and a Brutal Week 1 Slate
You gotta trust this model. It’s not messing around, already up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites from its top-rated NFL picks, and hitting the 2026 season on a scorching 53-37 run since 2024. That’s serious cheddar! Week 1 is always a beast for survivor pools, with zero in-season data to guide us. Plus, this year’s slate is packed with divisional brawls: 49ers vs. Rams in Australia, Packers vs. Vikings, Commanders vs. Eagles, Cowboys vs. Giants on Sunday night, and Broncos vs. Chiefs on Monday night. Sure, Cardinals vs. Chargers has the biggest NFL spread at Chargers (-10.5), which might scream easy pick, but the model’s focus is elsewhere, and it points to danger.
Dallas: A Week 1 Trap According to the Numbers
So, why the huge red flag on Dallas? The Cowboys are playing the New York Giants on Sunday night, and despite being -155 money line favorites with a -2.5 spread, the SportsLine model has zero confidence for a survivor pick. The Giants went a rough 4-13 last season, but they’ve got a new coaching staff led by former Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh. QB Jaxson Dart threw for 2,272 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 14 games last year. There’s also a chance star receiver Malik Nabers could be back from a knee injury, though his status isn’t confirmed. For the Cowboys, Dak Prescott, in his 11th season, put up 4,552 yards, 30 TDs, and 10 INTs in 2025. Sounds solid, but Dallas melted down last year, losing four of their last five games after being on track for the postseason. Plus, they’re only 2-4 in their last six Week 1 openers. The model projects the Giants to win in a shocking 47% of simulations, essentially a one-point game. That’s a massive risk for your survivor pool, no matter how you slice it.
So, as Week 1 looms, the data’s message is crystal clear: picking the Dallas Cowboys is a huge gamble. Don’t let the favorite status blind you. If you want to survive and advance, listen to the numbers and save your pick for another team. It’s going to be an intense start to the season, and every decision counts.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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