Aaron Rodgers is back for what he says is his final season in the NFL, reuniting with former Packers head coach Mike McCarthy, and honestly, the league isn’t giving them a whole lot of credit. Prediction markets are already setting some pretty stark expectations for the Steelers’ 2026 campaign, and if you’re a fan, you might need to brace yourself.
A Shocking Shift in the Steel City
Can you believe it? Mike Tomlin, after a legendary 19-year run that saw the Steelers consistently contending, is actually gone. This is a seismic shift! The guy led them to their 12th postseason berth under his watch and even snatched an AFC North title in a Week 18 thriller, only to fall to the Houston Texans in the Wild Card. Tomlin stepped down the very next day, sending shockwaves through the league. Now, the Steel City welcomes former Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy to the sidelines. And here’s the kicker: McCarthy is reuniting with Aaron Rodgers, the very quarterback he coached for an incredible 13 seasons with the Packers! Rodgers, who only just signed with the Steelers last offseason, flat out said McCarthy’s hiring was the reason he came back for this 2026 season. And if that wasn’t enough drama, he also confirmed this will officially be his final year in the NFL. Talk about high stakes! Despite all this upheaval, they still put up a respectable 10-7 record in 2025. That team had serious talent too, with Jalen Ramsey, Ben Skowronek, and T.J. Watt all making the Pro Bowl, and defensive tackle Cameron Heyward earning a second-team All-Pro nod. You’d think with that kind of roster and a big-name reunion, the expectations would be through the roof, right?
The Brutal Truth From the Numbers
Well, if you thought the Rodgers-McCarthy reunion would automatically put them atop the league, the prediction markets have some seriously cold water to throw on that idea. Polymarket, which tracks these kinds of things, is giving the Steelers only a 37% chance to make the playoffs. Thirty-seven percent! Are you kidding me? That ranks them a dismal 20th among all 32 NFL teams. If you’re looking to bet ‘Yes’ on a postseason appearance, shares are trading for just $0.38, while a ‘No’ is at $0.64. Basically, the smart money says they’re missing out. And it gets worse for the AFC North title chase. The Steelers have a mere 15% chance to win their own division, putting them a distant third out of four teams. That’s a brutal reality check right there. You can snag a ‘Yes’ share for that at just $0.15, but a ‘No’ will run you $0.86. Ouch. But wait, there’s more! The biggest blow is to their Super Bowl aspirations. Despite all the star power and coaching drama, the Steelers are looking at a minuscule 1% chance to win the Super Bowl this season. One single percent! That places them 22nd overall in the entire league. A ‘Yes’ share is practically worthless at $0.01, with ‘No’ trading at $0.99. These numbers aren’t just predictions; they’re a huge question mark hanging over the entire organization.
So, as the 2026 season kicks off, all eyes will be on Rodgers and McCarthy. Can they defy these incredibly low expectations from the prediction markets? It’s a huge mountain to climb from day one, and for a team with this much talent and a legendary quarterback saying goodbye, the pressure is absolutely immense.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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