Underdog bets? If your wallet is thicker than it was back in August, you already know the deal. Those scrappy underdogs have been absolutely cashing out this 2026 season, covering the spread in 51 of 90 games so far. Get this, an insane 36 of 58 covers have happened in just the last four weeks alone! What’s more, almost every single week, we’ve seen at least one team that was a 7-point underdog or more straight-up WIN the game. Wild, right?
That big upset trend, though? It’s probably hitting the brakes in Week 7. There’s only one game where the favorite is laying more than 6.5 points, with the Houston Texans, sitting at 2-4, being 10-point home favorites against the New York Giants (3-2-1). Even though double-digit underdogs have hit 3-1 against the spread this season, the Giants aren’t making the cut for my picks this week. Instead, I’m looking at a trio of teams to take the +4.5 points, and yeah, one of them hasn’t tasted victory yet this season, another is fresh off the biggest upset of the year, and the third is in a three-game skid. We’re diving deep into that winless squad first.
Why the Jets Aren’t the Lock You Think They Are
Okay, so you might be thinking, “Betting on another winless team after last week’s Chargers disaster? Are you serious?” But hear me out, I can’t help it when we’re catching more than a field goal against a franchise that has only managed 10 wins in its last 40 games. And six of those wins came when they were actually favorites! I get it, the Jets, at 2-4 straight up and a solid 4-1-1 against the spread, have been competitive and profitable this year. They’ve only really had one stinker, that 23-12 loss at Chicago in Week 4. Otherwise, they’ve fought hard in losses to the Packers, Lions, and Patriots, covering as underdogs in all three. Two weeks ago, they even pulled off a 17-12 comeback win against the Browns as a 2.5-point home favorite. I also know that eight of their last 10 victories over the past three seasons, including that Cleveland win and a 23-10 season-opening rout of the Titans, have been by more than four points. Impressive, right?
The Dolphins Are Primed For the Upset
But here’s the kicker: unlike those Chargers, Miami has been getting incrementally better each week. They got stomped early by Las Vegas, 27-13, and then San Francisco, 35-13, to kick off the season. Ouch. But since then? They’ve put up respectable fights in losses to the Chiefs, 24-10, Vikings, 15-10, and Bengals, 31-24. See that improvement? The Dolphins also have a massive matchup advantage here. They’ve been flat-out better than the Jets at running the ball and, even more importantly, shutting down the run, both in terms of yards per game and yards per carry. Has their secondary been a total mess? Yeah, you got it. But come on, they’ve faced a brutal gauntlet of quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, and Joe Burrow. Now, they get Geno Smith. He’s having a solid bounce-back season, absolutely, but let’s be real, he’s not exactly an MVP candidate, is he?
The situation just screams Miami. They’re coming off a bye week, fresh and ready. The Jets, meanwhile, are playing only their second home game since Week 2, which means less home-field advantage than you’d expect. Will the Dolphins beat New York for the 18th time in their last 21 meetings? Maybe not a straight-up win, but you bet your bottom dollar they’ll do enough to keep this one tight and cover that +4.5 spread. This is a game you don’t want to miss. Get ready for some Week 7 action!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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