The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship kicks off the PGA postseason this Thursday from TPC Southwind, and SportsLine’s model has dropped a longshot parlay that could net a whopping $45,000 off a tiny $10 bet. That’s right, a ten-dollar bill potentially turning into five figures. This is the first event of the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs, where the stakes are already high.
The Model That’s Been Nailing It
Before you even think about that $10, you need to know who’s behind these picks. SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been absolutely on fire since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. This model has nailed a ridiculous 17 majors, including the 2026 Masters, which was its fifth Masters win in a row. It also hit last year’s PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone following its golf betting picks could have seen massive returns. The model crunched the numbers on the entire 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship field, running 10,000 simulations to lock in this six-leg PGA Tour parlay.
The tournament itself has a history of tight finishes, with four of the last five editions going to a playoff. Margin of victory is a prop bet to keep an eye on. Neither Scottie Scheffler nor Rory McIlroy has won or even placed second at this specific event, though Scheffler is the +460 favorite with McIlroy at +1025. Michael Brennan, fresh off a Sunday win, sits at +6000 for a back-to-back, though his prop for a top 10 finish at +385 might be more tempting since it’s his first time playing TPC Southwind.
Why Russell Henley Over Si Woo Kim Is the Key
One crucial leg in SportsLine’s parlay is a direct matchup: Russell Henley over Si Woo Kim at +105. The stats back it up: Henley has finished better than Kim in three of their last four head-to-head events. And don’t forget the Charles Schwab in late May, where Henley won and Kim didn’t even play!
Their St. Jude Championship history further supports this. Henley has snagged a better placement in two of the last three events, with a 17.7 average finish compared to Kim’s 26.7 over those starts. The course itself, TPC Southwind, plays right into Henley’s strengths. Its greens average just 4,300 square feet, making them some of the smallest on the PGA Tour. This is big for Henley, who ranks 14th in strokes gained: putting and lands a top-40 mark in total putting. Kim, however, sits outside the top 100 players in both categories. That’s a massive advantage for Henley on these tight greens.
The 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship begins Thursday. Are you ready to see if this $10 parlay really brings home $45,000? I know I’ll be watching!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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