Alright, college football fans, buckle up because the 2026 season is staring down some serious heat. Florida State’s Mike Norvell, Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, and Baylor’s Dave Aranda just got slammed with a 5.0 hot-seat rating, the absolute highest possible, from CBS Sports’ annual expert poll. Every single expert agreed these guys are in must-win territory. Talk about a brutal start to the season when kickoff is still just under two months away.
The Unanimous Verdict and Who’s Next
Seriously, a unanimous 5.0? That’s not just a warning shot, that’s a cannonball aimed straight at the coaching office. The CBS Sports experts, a panel including names like Matt Zenitz, Shehan Jeyarajah, and Tom Fornelli, did not hold back. They asked each of the ten experts to rate all 138 FBS coaches on a scale from 0 to 5, and then averaged those evaluations. A 5.0 means ‘win or be fired,’ and it drives home the pure urgency these coaches face. Norvell, Fickell, and Aranda aren’t alone in feeling the burn. Maryland’s Mike Locksley is right on their heels with a 4.9, almost unanimous himself. South Carolina’s Shane Beamer is sitting at a 4.3, and North Carolina even has Bill Belichick rated at a 4.1. When you see Belichick’s name on that list, you know the pressure is starting to get turned up the most across the league.
History’s Cold Reality (and a Few Miracles)
Now, you might be thinking, ‘a rating is just a rating,’ but history says otherwise. Last season, five out of the eight coaches who got a 4.1 or higher hot-seat rating ended up getting fired, either during or after the season. We saw guys like Hugh Freeze, Sam Pittman, and Mike Gundy shown the door. That’s a brutal track record, and it means Norvell, Fickell, and Aranda have a huge uphill battle ahead of them to stick around. But hey, it’s not all doom and gloom for everyone. Oklahoma’s Brent Venables and Arizona’s Brent Brennan both managed to flip the script on their tenures after facing high ratings. And then there’s Louisiana Tech’s Sonny Cumbie. This dude was also a 5.0 last year, then led his Bulldogs to a fourth-place finish in Conference USA and an Independence Bowl win! He’s still got some pressure at a 3.2 mark this season, but what a turnaround. So, while the 5.0 is scary, it’s not a guaranteed death sentence, just a massive challenge.
The flip side of the coin? A low rating doesn’t guarantee safety either. Remember Brian Kelly? He was at a 3.33 before his midseason dismissal. And in what CBS Sports called a ‘Hot Seat Rating history’ moment, James Franklin got fired by Penn State after a shocking 1.33 preseason rating! That just tells you anything can happen in this crazy sport, and job security is never truly safe. With all 138 FBS coaches evaluated and kickoff just under two months away, all eyes will be on these top-tier pressure cookers. Will Norvell, Fickell, and Aranda pull a Cumbie, or will they join the ‘shown the door’ club? It’s going to be absolutely wild to watch unfold.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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