Week 0 college football is hitting us early this year, and SportsLine’s model is already dropping some absolute bombshells. This Saturday, August 29, the model has Virginia projected for a 30-24 victory over NC State, a pick that should have the Wolfpack fan base doing a double-take right now.
The Cavalier Comeback Nobody Saw Coming
NC State has absolutely owned this rivalry, taking six of the last seven matchups, including a nail-biting 35-31 victory just last year in 2025. You’d think that kind of dominance would make them the clear favorite, right? Wrong. The latest odds have NC State as a four-point underdog against the Cavaliers. And get this: SportsLine’s advanced model is backing Virginia to cover that spread in a whopping 53% of its simulations. That’s a bold call given recent history, but this model has some serious chops.
Remember Virginia’s absolute wagon of a season last year? Eleven wins, capping it all off with a gritty 13-7 victory over the Missouri Tigers in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. That’s a team that knows how to win big games when it counts. Plus, they’ve got a killer track record in season openers, coming out on top in eight of their last nine. Talk about starting strong! Despite their struggles specifically against the Wolfpack, losing four straight and six of the last seven overall, the model is telling us something dramatically different is about to happen. This isn’t just a game; it’s a statement for Virginia right out of the gate.
The Model’s Secret Sauce and Other Killer Bets
This isn’t some fly-by-night operation, folks. This model is a beast, running 10,000 simulations for every single FBS game. It’s been on a scorching 31-19 run on top-rated college football money-line picks since the 2024 season, so it knows a thing or two. And get this: they’ve even upgraded it for 2026 to bake in all the craziness of the transfer portal, making it even sharper for nailing those tricky college football betting picks.
Beyond the Virginia shocker, the model is also eyeing a few other Week 0 gems. It’s backing Hawaii to cover (+4) against Stanford, which could be another fun early-season upset. And for Memphis vs. UNLV, the Over (56.5) is hitting an impressive 62% of the time in simulations. Other big games on the Week 0 slate include UNC vs. TCU (-8.5), San Jose St. vs. USC (-38.5), and New Mexico State vs. Florida State (-31.5).
So, what are you waiting for? Combining these three top picks,Virginia (-4) vs. NC State, Hawaii (+4) vs. Stanford, and the Over 56.5 in Memphis vs. UNLV,into a Week 0 parlay could land you a sweet +585 payout. That’s a chance to turn a $100 risk into a $585 win. College football is back, and the model is already laying down the law. These early calls are setting the tone, and you don’t want to miss out on what could be the start of a wild season.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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