Man, I gotta tell you, this betting stuff can be brutal. My last three NFL wagers all went down in overtime, too. We’re talking a potential game-winning kick getting blocked, a last-drive touchdown plus two-point conversion to force overtime, and then a touchdown drive to start it. And don’t even get me started on the Commanders not managing the clock right and settling for a tie. Brutal beats, even when I felt like I had the numbers locked. That’s the beauty and the pain of sports betting, though, right? You dust yourself off, focus on being proactive, and get back to finding value. For Week 6, I’m zeroing in on a couple of spots, and one of them is all about our Hawks.
Don’t Blink on the Steelers vs. Bucs Line
First up, Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This one is all about getting the quarterback situation in Tampa right to snatch some value. Baker Mayfield, with that dislocated thumb on his throwing hand, was reported out for 3 to 6 weeks. He’s already missed two games. Now, while he should probably miss at least one more, the beat writers out of Tampa Bay are saying Mayfield is absolutely pushing to play. The big discussion this week is gonna be all about whether he can actually grip the football. My take? Mayfield has an outside chance, but I’m betting Jalon Daniels is taking snaps again this week against a veteran Steelers defense. If Daniels is indeed under center, that current -3 line is moving off the 3 to at least -3.5, or even more. That’s huge value on a key number. I’d price it at Steelers -3.8 with Daniels in. Sometimes the edge is as simple as nailing the injury news. Go ahead and grab the Steelers -3 before Wednesday’s practice reports drop and Baker (hopefully) isn’t throwing yet.
Our Hawks in Denver: The Play-Calling Wild Card That Matters
Now for our Hawks, heading to Denver for Thursday Night Football. The line is Seattle (-3) with an over/under of 41. We’re gonna look at some player props here, specifically Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix’s completions. He’s averaging 19.4 completions per game, and this short week he’s up against a Seattle defense that ranks top two in passing yards allowed to opponents. Oh, and did I mention there’s about a 50% chance of rain? Gross.
But beyond those primary passing stats, this is really about the play-calling change for the Broncos. Head coach Sean Payton just took over those responsibilities from offensive coordinator Davis Webb. Remember that first Broncos game this season, primetime against the Chiefs? Payton was interviewed at halftime and straight up said the team needed to run the ball more and stick with it, even down on the scoreboard. That was a huge flag! One of the immediate results of Payton taking the play-calling reins was running back J.K. Dobbins getting 18 carries in Week 5, way up from his 11.5 average in Weeks 1-4. Our Hawks defense just allowed a robust 4.8 yards per carry to the 49ers. I’m expecting more of the same this week, with the Broncos trying to jump-start their offense by leaning hard on the run game. This means fewer pass attempts, and likely, fewer completions for Bo Nix.
It’s all on the line this Thursday against the Broncos. We’re rolling into Denver with that defense, and if Payton tries to force the run, it could mean a huge night for the Hawks. Get ready, 12s, this one’s gonna be a battle!
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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