Alright, less than two weeks until kickoff for the 2026 NFL regular season, and you know what that means for us degenerate fantasy managers: draft season is ON! We all want to win our leagues, right? The absolute best way to do that, straight up, is by dodging those landmine busts. Think about last season: guys like Lamar Jackson, Garrett Wilson, Malik Nabers, Alvin Kamara , they straight up blew up lineups with injuries or just totally ineffective play. Ouch. But what if I told you there’s a proven computer model out there, simulating the whole dang season 10,000 times, that’s already got the inside scoop on who to fade?
The Model That Saw It Coming (and It’s Scary Accurate)
This isn’t just some random gut feeling or a dude’s hot take. We’re talking about the SportsLine model, and its track record is flat-out undeniable. Last year? It called Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin falling way, way short of his top-50 ADP. McLaurin, the guy who piled up nearly 1,100 receiving yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns just the season before. What actually happened? A brutal career-low 582 receiving yards and just 3 touchdowns. Yeah, injuries played a part, but his per-game numbers were down across the board too. Anyone who steered clear of him dodged a massive fantasy headache. That’s serious foresight!
And it’s not a one-hit wonder. This same model identified A.J. Brown as a sleeper back in 2020. It absolutely nailed Jonathan Taylor’s monstrous 2021 season. It even predicted C.J. Stroud would take a step back in 2024. Talk about receipts! Go further back, it called sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. When this model speaks, you gotta listen, because it’s talking straight to your fantasy championship hopes.
Houston, We Have a Problem: David Montgomery’s Red Flag
So, who’s the model’s latest bust prediction for 2026? Drumroll please: David Montgomery, the Houston Texans running back. This one’s got to sting for anyone eyeing him in the middle rounds. Montgomery, at 29 years old, was a high-volume touchdown scorer in Detroit. But now? He’s heading to a less explosive offense in Houston. Sure, some folks are hyped he’s not sharing the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs anymore, but guess what? He’s still expected to split snaps, this time with Woody Marks, who racked up over 900 yards from scrimmage as a rookie. That’s a serious threat to touches.
ADP data right now shows Montgomery going around pick No. 51. That’s a fourth or fifth-round investment! But SportsLine’s model? It puts him squarely in the same tier as guys like Jaylen Warren, Jadarian Price, and even a 10th-rounder like Kenneth Gainwell. That’s a *massive* difference in value, telling you loud and clear that taking Montgomery at his current ADP is a huge risk. You are essentially drafting a later-round guy way too early. Do you really want to kick off your fantasy season with a pick that could crater your lineup? I don’t think so.
The 2026 NFL season kicks off in less than two weeks, and your fantasy draft is right around the corner. Making the right calls, especially avoiding these busts, is gonna be the difference between hoisting that trophy and battling for the consolation prize. Head over to SportsLine, check out those full rankings, and get yourself ready. You don’t want to be the one dealing with a fantasy headache like McLaurin owners did last year, trust me.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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