The Padres’ season is flat out on the line tonight, with San Diego staring down an 0-2 hole against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLDS. After a brutal walk-off loss in Game 2, the action finally shifts to Petco Park, but the stakes couldn’t be higher for the Friars.
A Gut-Punch That Should Not Have Happened
Man, what a collapse in Game 2. It felt like San Diego had it in the bag, ready to head back home tied 1-1. The Padres had a 3-2 lead heading into the bottom of the ninth, and Mason Miller, their often-unhittable closer, was on the mound. This wasn’t some rookie mistake from Miller, either; he’d previously locked down two six-out saves this season without a single issue. But then the Brewers, who are tied for fifth in the regular season with 42 come-from-behind wins, showed up big time. Brewers superstar Jackson Chourio played hero, again, ripping a game-winning, two-run single with two outs for a crushing 4-3 victory. If that “usually reliable” Friars’ bullpen had done its job in the first two games, this series might be playing out for a Padres sweep right now. Instead, it was an absolute gut-punch loss, possibly one of the biggest in team history.
History Says This Is Almost Over
The numbers do not lie, and they are grim for San Diego. When a team drops the first two games at home in a Division Series, under this current 2-2-1 format, they’ve gone on to lose the series 33 out of 36 times. That’s a staggering 92% elimination rate. Think about that for a second: 92 PERCENT! You know who was the last team to rally from an 0-2 deficit in a best-of-5? The 2017 Yankees, who did it against Cleveland in the ALDS. That was five years ago! The Brewers are sitting pretty at -1100 to win the series, while the Padres are a long shot at +700. Vegas knows what’s up, and history is screaming it.
Game 3: Do-or-Die in San Diego
Tonight, it’s do or die for the Padres, and they’ll be trying to stay alive in front of their home crowd at Petco Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 9:30 ET on FS1, though it might get pushed back depending on how long the Dodgers-Braves Game 3 goes. At least the weather will be perfect in San Diego, with winds blowing in slightly, which could help keep things close. The Padres are favored on the money line at -135, taking 57% of bets, but only 43% of the handle, which is kinda wild. The total is set at 7, and there’s heavy action for the Over. Look, for the sake of drama, and because neither of these franchises has ever won a Fall Classic, you gotta be hoping for a Game 3 Padres win just to keep this series going. If they want to even have a prayer, they HAVE to turn it around tonight.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by CBS Sports.
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