Ole Miss is sitting pretty at No. 13, and most folks have Auburn as double-digit underdogs heading into Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium this Saturday. But hold up a minute. While everyone’s focused on the Rebels’ recent success and their transfer portal hauls, the Tigers are rolling into Oxford with first-year head coach Alex Golesh, ready to prove that the stat sheet tells a much different story than the spread. Don’t let the experts fool you, because Auburn is primed to sneak out of the Magnolia State with a massive upset.
Byrum Brown Is About to Go Off and Ole Miss Can’t Stop It
Listen, Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown was on an absolute tear, hitting 100 passing yards *and* 100 rushing yards in two straight games before that tough LSU loss. You think he’s not itching to get back to that rhythm? And guess who’s on the menu this week? Ole Miss, with a defense that’s practically inviting him to feast. The Rebels rank No. 12 in the SEC in pass defense and dead last at No. 16 in rushing defense. Are you kidding me? This is exactly the kind of matchup Byrum Brown needs to explode, and the Rebels’ D just does not have the answers.
And it is not just about Brown’s individual brilliance. Auburn is gonna move the chains, too. Sure, both teams are similar on third-down success, with Ole Miss converting 45% and Auburn at 43%. But here’s the kicker: Auburn’s opponents convert just 35% of their third downs, while Ole Miss’s opponents convert a whopping 41%. Auburn *has* to extend drives, and with Ole Miss’s D struggling to get off the field, the Tigers can absolutely control the clock and keep the Rebels’ offense on the sideline.
Ole Miss’s Fatal Flaws Are About to Haunt Them
Here’s where things get real messy for Ole Miss. They are without star running back Kewan Lacy on Saturday, and that’s a gigantic blow. Yeah, backup Mahki Frazier has only 87 fewer rushing yards than Lacy, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss can use his legs, but losing your lead back changes *everything*. Auburn’s run defense might be No. 14 in the SEC, but they find success when they limit opponents’ run games. In Auburn wins this season, the highest an opposing running back has produced is a mere 88 yards. Lacy being out? That opens the door for Auburn to clamp down on the run and force Ole Miss into uncomfortable situations.
And speaking of uncomfortable, let’s talk turnovers. That loss to Texas last Saturday? All because Ole Miss couldn’t hold onto the ball, with Trinidad Chambliss throwing a season-high three interceptions. Meanwhile, Auburn hasn’t turned the ball over in two weeks! If Auburn keeps ending drives with kicks and converts just a couple of those Ole Miss miscues into points, this game is theirs for the taking. Plus, both these teams rank among the lowest in the SEC for time of possession, with Ole Miss dead last at 26:41 per game and Auburn just nine seconds longer. If Auburn can grab more meaningful possessions and capitalize on Ole Miss’s sloppy play, the upset is written.
So, yeah, the experts are calling Auburn double-digit underdogs. But when you break down the matchups, the injuries, and the turnover battle, this Saturday is shaping up to be a shocker in Oxford. Keep your eyes glued to this one, because the Tigers are coming to play.
This article was created with AI assistance and published under Seattle On Tap’s editorial standards. See our Editorial Policy.
Originally reported by Yahoo Sports.
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